从印度经济增长瓶颈看莫迪改革的方向、挑战及应对

Understanding Directions,Challenges and Responses to Modi's Reforms from the Perspective of India's Constrained Economic Development

印度经济增长波动频繁,通胀和国际收支失衡是导致其经济波动的直接原因,而经济结构落后,尤其是制造业发展不充分是引致波动的根本原因。从上届国大党政府到本届莫迪政府都提出要发展制造业,但却没有取得预期的进展。相反,企业和银行双双出现的财务失衡进一步造成全社会固定投资占比的下降。要消除瓶颈,唯有改革。莫迪自上台以来稳步推进改革,从选择争议小且已具一定共识的领域开始,通过给予各邦一定的政策自由,鼓励它们开展竞争,营造更有利的投资环境。可以预见,随着莫迪领导的印度人民党在上下两院优势不断扩大,莫迪的改革步伐将进一步加快。

India has faced significant economic instability,which is a direct result of inconsistent economic growth,inflation and a balance of payments disequilibrium. Structurally,India's economy continues to lag,and deficiencies in the development of its manufacturing have contributed to its economic instability.From the former National Congress Party government to the present Modi government,India has consistently emphasized the need to develop its industrial base,however,it has failed to make progress in this area. To the contrary,financial imbalances on the part of both corporations and banks resulted in an overall decrease in the proportion of capital investment. The only way to move beyond this bottleneck is to implement reform. Since Modi took office,he has consistently pushed a reform agenda,and has started with reforms to which resistance is minimal and around which consensus has emerged. He has further given states increased policy freedom,encouraged competition,and worked to create a more favorable investment environment. It is foreseeable that as the Modi-led People's Party continues to develop more power in both houses,the pace of Modi's reform initiative will continue to pick up.