经济增长、城镇化与技术创新VAR模型研究——以陕西省数据为例

Research on Economic Growth,Urbanization and Technological Innovation with VAR Model——Taking the Data of Shaanxi as an Example

以1985—2014年陕西省GDP、城镇化人口比例与专利申请数为原始数据,采用VAR模型实证分析经济增长、城镇化与技术创新三者之间的关系。经过格兰杰因果检验,经济增长与城镇化、城镇化与技术创新互为因果关系,但是仅提高技术创新水平并不能促进经济增长。估计模型后利用单位根检验其稳定性,经过Johensen协整检验,得出陕西省GDP、城镇化人口比例和专利申请数三者之间存在长期动态均衡关系。处理好三者之间的关系,形成增长联动机制,将有助于陕西省经济在转型期的平稳发展。

This paper analyzes the relationship among economic growth, urbanization and technological innovation with the VAR model used in GDP, the proportion of urban population and the number of patent applications in 1985 -2014 of Shaanxi province . Through Granger causality test, the causal relationship among economic growth and urbanization, urbanization and technological innovation are proved, but improving technological innovation alone will not boost economic growth. The model is estimated, then its stability is tested by using the unit root, there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship among GDP, urbanization of the population proportion and the number of patent applications of Shaanxi Province through the Johensen co-integration test. Good handling of the relationships among the three variables and the linkage mechanism of economic growth will contribute to the stable development of Shaanxi economy in its reforming process.