陕甘宁地区气候暖干化趋势分析

Analysis on the Climatic Warming-drying Trend in the Juncture of Shaaxi and Gansu Provinces and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

据陕甘宁地区 195 1～ 2 0 0 0年气温、降水记录 ,得出结论 ,整个陕甘宁地区都是增温区 ,全区增温线性倾向值为 0 .0 194℃ /a ,高于全球近百年的趋势 (0 .0 0 5℃ /a) ,低于全国其他地区 ,区内差异显著。降水线性倾向值分布自西向东增大 ,全区平均值为 - 1.0 75 9mm/a。

The juncture of Shaaxi and Gansu provinces and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has a total area of 1.38×105 km2 and a population of 10,040,000. The population density here is 73 persons per square kilometer, and is much higher than the standard of the United Nations for the semi-arid areas (20 persons per square kilometer). The juncture is located in the marginal zone of monsoon, and is a sensitive region to the global climate change and the response of environment change, so it is significant to research the climate change in the juncture. In this paper, the temperature and precipitation in the juncture during the period of 1951～2000 are analyzed. The results show that the temperature is increasing in the whole juncture, the linear trend value of temperature increase is 0.0194℃/a and higher than the global one in recent 100 years but lower than that of other regions in China, and the difference of temperature increase in the juncture is great. The linear trend value of precipitation increases from the west to the east, and the average value in the whole juncture is -1.0759 mm/a.