新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段的灰色预测

Gray Prediction of the Damaged Sections of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge in Xinjiang

在对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段、受损长度及受损频率和受损密度详尽分析的基础上 ,揭示了陆桥新疆段受损区段的时空分布规律。并依据灾害的时序分布特征 ,运用灰色原理和方法 ,根据受损区段数确立阈值和相应的年份序列 ,分别建立GM (1,1)模型 ,求出年份序列的序号响应式 ,并对实际值和理论预测结果进行了拟合检验 ,模型群的原点误差范围为 0 .198— 1.314之间 ,平均误差为 0 .82 3— 1.917,并同时预测了陆桥新疆段 2 0 0 1—2 0 0

Various natural disasters, such as floods, strong winds, sand drifts, roadbed disasters, etc., occur frequently along the section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge in Xinjiang, and have seriously been affecting the railway transportation. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution of the damaged railway sections and their length are discussed. Based on the principles and the methods of gray theory, the threshold values and the corresponding annual-series are determined for the damaged sections of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge in Xinjiang so as to provide the basis for developing the prediction models. And then the railway sections, which will be possibly damaged by the natural disasters during the period from 2000 to 2005, are predicted by using the models. At last, a regressive examination of the observed data and the predicted results is carried out. The results show that the errors of the original points of the models vary in a range of 0.198～1.314 and the average errors vary in a range of 0.823～1.927.