新疆玛纳斯河年径流频率分析

Annual runoff frequency analysis of the Manas River in Xinjiang

采用Mann-Kendall检验法和滑动t检验法,针对新疆玛纳斯河1956—2014年径流序列构建混合分布模型和条件概率分布模型进行频率分析。结果表明:玛纳斯河1956—2014年的年径流序列存在巨变异,1995年为年径流序列变异年份;拟合曲线上部混合分布和条件概率分布相近,与P-Ⅲ分布存在较大差异;拟合曲线中部混合分布比条件概率分布和P-Ⅲ分布拟合更佳;拟合曲线下部三种拟合均无明显波动,拟合较好;混合分布模型更适于玛纳斯河年径流进行频率分析。

To carry out frequency analysis for the Manas River in Xinjiang based on the nearly 60 years runoff sequence,a mixed distribution model and a conditional probability distribution model were constructed using the Mann-Kendall test and t- test. The results shows that the annual runoff series of the Manas River in 1956 ？2014 have great variations and the year 1995 is the sequence variation year. In the upper part of the fitted curve,the mixed distribution and the conditional probability distribution are similar, but big difference exists compared the P-III distribution. In the middle of the fitted curve,the fitting effect of the mixed distribution is better than both conditional probability distribution and P-Ⅲ distribution. In the lower part of the fitted curve, the fitting effects of all the three distributions are pretty good, and there is no obvious fluctuations. Through the K-S test analysis and comparing the values of QLS, ABS and A IC, the mixed distribution model is more suitable for frequency analysis of the annual runoff in the Manas River Basin.