管理层盈余预测与不对称及时性实证研究

Management earnings forecasts and measured asymmetric timeliness

为了分析管理层盈余预测对盈余不对称及时性之间的关系,即发布消息的时间点和内容分类对盈余不对称及时性的影响,用Basu模型分段实证检验盈余预测对盈余不对称及时性的影响、正(负)向盈余预测与不对称及时性的关系,以及当期发布的盈余预警对盈余不对称及时性的影响。结果表明,不对称及时性对公司发布的未来盈余的影响不显著,公司发布预期盈余的时间及时性主要集中在负向盈余意外,这与价格引导盈余引起更多的未来盈余预测的向下有偏的不对称及时性系数相一致,当期发布盈余预警会降低盈余与收益的不对称及时性。管理层发布内部盈余预测,有助于缓解与外部信息使用者之间的信息不对称,满足利益相关者的决策需求,进而有助于促进证券市场向半强式有效市场转化。

In order to analyze the relationship between asymmetry timeliness and management earnings forecasts,namely,the effect of issuing time and content classification on the asymmetry timeliness,the Basu molde is used to test the effect of earnings forecast on the asymmetry timeliness,the relationship between positive(negative) earnings forecasting and asymmetric timeliness,and the effect of earnings warning on the asymmetry timeliness. The study finds that the effect of asymmetric timeliness on the future earnings of the company is not significant,and the asymmetry timeliness is mainly concentrated in the negative earnings surprise,which is consistent with the downward bias of the future earnings forecast,and the current disclosure of earnings warning will reduce the asymmetric timeliness of earnings and returns. Therefore,the internal earnings forecasts issued by management can help to ease the information asymmetry with the external information users,and meet the needs of decision-making stakeholders,and thus help to promote the transformation of the securities market to the semi-strong effective market.