橄榄型收入分配结构——中国有希望吗?

Olive-type Income Distribution Structure——Is China Promising?

利用CGSS数据,以地区家庭收入中位数的75%-125%为标准估计中等收入群体比重,发现中国城市中等收入群体比重偏低,橄榄型收入分配结构尚未达成。依据地区样本,空间回归模型表明中等收入群体比重具有负的空间溢出效应,人均GDP与中等收入群体比重正相关,与低收入群体比重负相关,随着经济和社会发展,中国有希望实现橄榄型收入分配结构。提高教育程度是扩大中等收入群体的主要途径,为子女提供良好的教育机会是进入中等收入群体的基本途径。城镇化和FDI更有利于高收入群体,转移支付能够改善收入分配结构,但效果有限。

Using the CGSS data and based on the median of Regional household income from 75% to125% to estimate the proportion of middle.income groups in China, this paper finds that the proportion ofmiddle.income groups in Chinese cities is rather low and the distribution structure of olive.type income has notbeen reached. According to regional samples, the spatial regression model shows that the proportion of middle.income groups has a negative spatial spillover effect, per.capita GDP is positively correlated with theproportion of middle.income groups and negatively correlated with the proportion of low.income groups. There.sa high chance to achieve Olive type income distribution structure with economic and social development inChina. Education is a base route in expanding middle.income groups, therefore providing good educationalopportunities for children is the basic way to enter middle.income groups. Urbanization and FDI are morefavorable to high.income groups. Transfer payment can improve the income distribution structure, but the effectis limited.