天津市产业经济、社会发展、生态环境耦合性问题

Coupling Problem of Industrial Economy-Social Development-Ecological Environment in Tianjin

结合因子分析法对天津市2001-2015年间产业经济、社会发展与生态环境三方面的指标数据进行了筛选与处理,运用耦合度模型、复合系统模型计算出三个子系统的耦合度以及总体协调度,并对它们之间的耦合发展水平及协调发展状况进行了分析。研究结果显示:天津市2001-2015年间的产业经济-社会发展-生态环境耦合度整体呈上升趋势,但自2011年开始三个系统间的协调度由原来的增长趋势开始变动,三个系统之间的不良影响凸显,甚至超过了良性耦合作用,究其原因发现生态环境子系统的发展有序程度导限制了复合系统协调度的上升,最后就提高生态文明水平提出了具有参考价值的四条建议。

In this paper,there are multi-variable data about the industrial economy,social development and ecological environment of Tianjin province from 2001 to 2015 is screened out and processed by the factor analysis method.Using the coupling evaluation model and the cooperative degree model of composite system to measure the present condition of coupling and the overall cooperative level of three subsystems,then the results were analyzed.Research results show that:the coupled degree between the industrial economy,social development and ecological environment of Tianjin is on the rise from 2001 to 2015,but the rising trend of three subsystems' cooperative level changed from 2011,the adverse coupling effect between the three systems is prominent gradually,even exceed its benign coupling effect.We find that the ecological environment's degree of order impose restrictions on the growth of the three subsystems' overall cooperative level.Finally four reference value recommendation were put forward to improve the level of ecological civilization.