未来黑碳气溶胶排放对区域气候变化的影响模拟

Simulation of impact of future black carbon aerosol emission on regional climate change

黑碳气溶胶是大气气溶胶的重要组分,其对从可见光到红外波段范围内的太阳辐射都具有强烈的吸收作用,对区域气候有较大影响。利用区域气候模式Reg CM3,加入自主编制的黑碳排放清单,以2013年为基准年,模拟研究了2030年基准排放情景(BB)、政策排放情景(EE)、政策能源排放情景(EB)和政策控制排放情景(BE)下排放的黑碳气溶胶对大气层顶太阳辐射量的影响,分析不同情景下黑碳气溶胶排放引起的气候效应。结果表明:4种情景黑碳排放量排序为BB>EB>BE>EE;BB下2030年全国的气温及降水量分布与2013年基本一致,变化不明显;EB和BE二者排放量基本一致,但是减排侧重点不同,引起的气候效应稍有差异,但差别不大;而EE下减排力度达到最大,排放量减至98万t,其引起的气温和降水量的变化相比于其他3种情景较为明显,在黑碳减排的同时,升温效应减少,降温效应突出。对比BE和EB下的排放量发现,工业部门在BE下的减排量较大,民用部门在EB下的减排量较大,表明排放控制措施在工业部门可以发挥较大的作用,民用部门的减排中能源结构调整措施较为重要。

Black carbon aerosol is an important component of atmospheric aerosol, which has a strong absorption effect on solar radiation from visible to infrared band, and has great influence on regional climate. Applying the regional climate model Reg CM3, with the establishment of an independent black carbon emissions list in 2013 as the base year, the effects of black carbon aerosol emission on the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere under four scenarios of BB（ business as usual）, EE, EB and BE in 2030 were simulated, and the climate effects caused by black carbon emissions under different scenarios analyzed. The results show that of the black carbon emissions the four scenarios are in the order of BB EB BE EE. The temperature and rainfall distribution under BB scenario in 2030 are basically in accordance with those in 2013, with no obvious change. The emissions of EB scenario and BE scenario are basically the same, but the focuses of the emission reduction of them are different,resulting in slightly different climate effects. The EE scenario has the maximum emission effort, and the emission is thus reduced to 980 thousand tons, which will cause more significant change of temperature and rainfall compared with the other three scenarios. Under this scenario, when the black carbon emission decreases, the heating effect isreduced and the cooling effect is prominent. Comparing the emissions of BE and EB scenarios, it can be found that the industrial sector has more emission reductions under BE scenario, while the civilian sector has more emission reductions under EB scenario, indicating that the emission control measures can play a larger role in the industrial sector, while the energy structure adjustment measures of the civilian sector is more important.