2017年我国物价形势分析及2018年展望

China's Price Situation Analysis of 2017 and Forecasting of 2018

2017年以来,我国居民消费价格温和上涨,涨幅低位运行;工业生产者价格波动上升,涨幅高位震荡。1-9月,CPI上涨1.5%,PPI上涨6.5%,预计2017年CPI上涨1.5%,PPI上涨6.2%。展望2018年,价格改革稳步推进、劳动力成本刚性上扬、环保和去产能政策冲击供给等支撑价格;国内需求总体偏弱、粮食产量和库存双高、通胀预期弱化等抑制价格涨幅。综合考虑各种因素和翘尾因素的影响,预计2018年CPI上涨2.0%,PPI上涨3.2%。建议实施稳健中性的货币政策,推进能源资源和服务领域价格改革,保障主要农产品供给平稳,做好房地产调控工作稳定市场预期。

In 2017, China＇s Consumer Price rose is mild and Industry Manufacture Price is fluctuation rising. CPI rises 1.5% and PPI rises 6.5% from January to September in 2017. According to present situation of price, CPI is expected to rise 1.5% and PPI is expected to decline 6.2% in 2017. In 2018, price reforming continuingpushing forward, rising of production and labor costs, environmental protection and capacity reduction policy affecting supplywill push up domestic prices. But total demand steady slowing down, grain yield and inventory rising in agriculture field, inflation expect weakening will slow down the price level. Taking into account all factors and tail-raising factor, CPI is expected to rise 2.0% and PPI rises 3.0% in 2018. Therefore, this paper suggests the implementation of flexible and stable monetary policy,do a good job of agricultural production to ensure the stability of the supply of major agricultural products, multi-measures to expand the scope of production capacity, and steadily push forward the price of energy resources and services reform,adopt different policies in different cities as appropriate to their local conditions to stabilize the real estate market prices and expectations, boost supply side structural reform.