中国工业景气2017年运行态势及特点分析

Analysis of Operation Situation and Feature of Chinese Industry in 2017

从2017年3月开始我国工业经济景气步入2000年以来的第6轮景气循环的收缩阶段,并一直持续至2017年8月。我国工业先行合成指数从2017年7月开始再现回升局面,若先行合成指数的回升局面得以持续,则根据先行合成指数的平均超前期计算,预计我国工业经济景气的本轮收缩局面或将于2017年年底结束。进一步观察我国工业及相关领域主要经济指标可以发现我国工业经济本轮的景气波动具有如下特点:(1)电子设备制造业积极向好,工业结构持续优化;(2)企业效益上升态势良好,工业复苏稳定;(3)工业品出口交货值稳定增长,民间工业投资比重下降。

Since March 2017, China＇s industrial economic boom has entered the contraction phase of the sixth round of business cycle since 2000, and has continued until August 2017. China＇s industrial synthetic index rebounded from July 2017 began to reproduce the situation, if the first synthetic index rebound situation continues, according to the synthetic index of average excess pre calculation, the expected round of contraction of the situation of China＇s industrial economic boom or will end at the end of 2017. we could find that this round of our industrial economy cycle has the following features：（1） Electronic equipment manufacturing industry improve steadily and the industrial structure continues to optimize;（2） The enterprise benefit is rising and the industrial recovery is stable;（3） The delivery value of industrial exports increased steadily, and the proportion of private industrial investment declined.