2017年我国能源形势分析及2018年预测

Analysis of China's Energy Situation in 2017 and Prediction for 2018

2017年,全国能源消费总量约44.9亿吨标准煤,同比增长2.9%,增速较上年提高1.5个百分点,能源行业呈现"消费全面回升、供给质量提升、结构持续优化、供需总体平衡"等特点。展望2018年,受宏观经济小幅放缓、经济结构转型升级加快、能源消费总量过快增长得到有效控制、能源供需结构清洁低碳化趋势明显等因素影响,预计2018年能源消费增速小幅回落,全年能源消费约45.8亿吨标准煤,同比增长2.1%,增速较2017年回落0.8个百分点,总体呈现"一减两稳一增"态势,即煤炭再次转为负增长、石油和电力稳定增长、天然气快速增长,能源供需宽松格局仍将延续。2018年亟须以解决新时代能源行业新矛盾为核心,从"坚持能源规划指导、提高能源供给质量、补齐能源民生短板、深化体制机制改革"四个方面重点着力,为建设美丽中国构建清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系。

In 2017, the total energy consumption of the country is about 44.9 million tons of standard coal, about 2.9 % increase by year. The growth rate increase by 1.5 percentage points over the previous year. The energy industry showed the characteristics of＂overall consumption recovered, supply quality improved, structural continuous optimized,overall supply and demand balanced＂. Looking forward to 2018, driven by a small slowdown in the macro economy, an accelerated restructuring and upgrading of the economic structure, a rapid growth of total energy consumption, and a clear trend in the structure of energy supply and demand in low carbon emissions, the growth in energy consumption is expected to fall slightly in 2018, with an annual energy consumption of about 4.58 billion tons of standard coal, which is about 2.1%increase by year. The growth rate decreases 0.8 percentage points lower than in 2017. The overall situation energy consumption can be summary as＂one decrease, two keep steady and one increase＂, that is, the coal consumption turns to negative growth again, oil and electricity grow stable, natural gas grows rapidly. The relaxed energy supply and demand pattern will continue. In 2018, it is urgent to solve the new contradiction of the energy industry. We should focus on the four aspects of＂adhering to the guidance of energy planning, improving the quality of energy supply, supplementing people＇s energy livelihood, deepening the reform of the institutional mechanism＂, and build a clean and low-carbon and efficient energy system for China.