2017年我国国际收支形势分析及2018年展望

Analysis of China's Balance of Payments Situation in 2017 and its Outlook in 2018

2017年前三季度,我国国际收支呈现基本平衡,经常账户、非储备性质金融账户"双顺差"格局重现,外汇储备稳步回升。市场预期转好,境内主体对外资产配置行为更趋理性,外汇供求基本平衡,但基础性资金流入继续放缓。预计2018年国际收支经常账户仍将保持合理的顺差规模,跨境资本流动总体保持稳定。建议进一步落实"扩流入"政策,加强跨境资本流动管理,优化宏观审慎政策框架,防范系统性金融风险。

In the first three quarters of 2017, Chinas Balance of Payments showed a roughly balance. Current account and non-reserve financial account record surplus. Foreign reserves recovered steadily. Market expectation turned positive,the domestic entities tend to be more rational in external asset allocation and the foreign exchange supply basically meets the demand. However, current account surplus and the FDI surplus continue to slow down. It is estimated that in 2018 current account will maintain a reasonable surplus and the overall cross-border capital flows will remain stable. We suggest further implementing the policy of ＂expanding inflows＂, strengthening the management of cross-border capital flows,optimizing macro-prudential policy frameworks and guarding against systemic financial risks.