考虑碳交易风险的空调制造企业节能技术采纳时机研究

The Timing of Energy-saving Technology Adoption in Air-conditioning Manufacturers Concerned with the Risk of Carbon Trading

碳限额与交易政策下空调制造企业采纳节能技术将面临不确定风险.运用实物期权方法构建具备"碳交易市场"与"产品市场"特征的经济模型,分析得出空调制造企业采纳节能技术的门槛碳价.研究表明,空调制造企业采纳节能技术的门槛碳价与碳价波动率呈正相关,而与空调技术节能率以及消费者对节能空调产品偏好程度呈负相关.空调制造企业应考量碳交易市场风险的期权价值,综合把控"碳交易市场"与"产品市场",合理选择采纳节能技术的时机.

Air-conditioning manufacturers are faced with uncertain risks in the adoption of energy-savingtechnologies under the carbon cap and trading policy. This paper uses the real option method to construct aneconomy model with both characteristics of “ carbon trading market” and “ product market”, and analyzesthe threshold of carbon price for air-conditioning manufacturers adopting energy-saving technology. The re-search shows that the threshold concerned is positively correlated with the carbon price volatility rate, but isnegatively correlated with the energy-saving rate of air-conditioning technology and consumer preference toenergy-saving air-conditioning products. Air-conditioning manufacturers are supposed to consider the optionvalue of carbon trading market risk, comprehensively control the “carbon trading market” and “product mar-ket”, and make a reasonable decision of energy-saving technology adoption timing.