中国贸易结构及产业结构研究——基于投入产出Skyline方法

Research on China's Trade Structure and Industrial Structure——Based on Skyline Analysis

通过Skyline分析方法研究中国贸易结构的变化与发展,讨论国内产业结构变化给贸易结构带来的影响。结果表明:第一产业和第三产业的出口率和进口率均处于较低水平,平均自给率在100%以上,而其变化趋势均呈现倒"U"型;第二产业呈现技术密集型行业发展占国内工业生产规模比重偏小,而劳动密集型行业和资源密集型行业所占比重较高的特征。中国需要通过调整产业结构来完善贸易结构,通过贸易结构的带动促进产业结构的合理化。

The paper analyzes the relationship between China ’ s trade structure and industrial structure by usingskyline analysis method. The results are as follows. The export rate and the import rate for the primary and the tertiaryindustries is at a low level, the average self-sufficiency rate is above 100%, and the change trend is U curve. Thesecond industry is characterized by a small proportion of technology - intensive industries and a relatively largeproportion of labor - intensive and resource - intensive industries in the domestic industrial production. Therefore,china should adjust industrial structure to improve the trade structure and promote the rationalization of industrialstructure.