基础货币投放结构的宏观经济效应

Macroeconomic Effects of the Structure of Monetary Base

随着我国外汇占款的持续下降,中央银行采用借贷便利货币政策工具投放基础货币日趋常态化,导致基础货币投放机制发生了深刻变化。本文从中央银行资产负债表出发,在分析基础货币投放阶段性特征的基础上,将基础货币投放的主动成分与被动成分相分离,利用TVP-VAR模型检验1993年以来中央银行基础货币投放与经济增长、物价水平之间的内在联系。研究发现:基础货币投放的随机扰动冲击对经济增长、物价水平的影响具有时变特征;在不同基础货币投放阶段下,被动投放冲击和主动投放冲击对经济增长和物价水平的影响存在较大差异;从影响强度和影响时滞来看,被动投放冲击的宏观经济效应在大多数时点下强于主动投放冲击的宏观经济效应。以上结论说明基础货币的主动投放与被动投放的宏观经济效应并不相同,且被动投放的宏观经济效应在大多数时点下都强于主动投放的宏观经济效应。中央银行在调控基础货币总量的基础上还需关注基础货币投放结构,进一步完善长期基础货币的投放渠道。

With the continued decline in funds outstanding for foreign exchange, China＇s central bank frequently uses the lending facilities of monetary policy to inject monetary base, which leads to profound changes in the injection mecha- nism of monetary base. Embarking from the central bank＇s balance sheets, based on the analysis of the phase characteris- tics of monetary base injection, this paper separates the active injection from the passive injection of monetary base, and uses the TVP-VAR mode] to examine the interconnection between monetary base injection and economic growth and price level since 1993. The results show that the random disturbance of monetary base injection has significant time-varying impacts on economic growth and price level; there are significant differences between the impacts of passive injection and active injection of monetary base on economic growth and price level under different phases of monetary base structure; from the view of impact strength and time delay, the impacts of passive injection on macroeconomy are stronger than the impacts of active injection in most of time. The above conclusions show that the macroeconomic effects of active and passive injection of monetary base are not the same, and the macroeconomic effects of passive injection are stronger than the active injection in most of time. On the basis of controlling the total amount of monetary base, the central bank should pay more attention to the structure of monetary base and further improve the mechanism of long-time monetary base.