中国货物出口与服务贸易关联性——基于增加值贸易(TiVA)视角的研究

The Relevance between China's Export of Goods and Services Trade:A Study from the Perspective of Trade in Value-Added

制造业与服务业发展的关联性在很大程度上反映于货物贸易与服务贸易之间。基于增加值贸易视角,本文利用世界投入产出表(WIOD)建立VAR模型探究中国货物出口与服务贸易之间关联性,结果表明:货物增加值出口与服务增加值进口、生产性服务业增加值进口之间,制造业增加值出口与生产性服务业增加值进口之间相互促进作用明显。长期来看,非制造业增加值出口与服务业增加值出口、生产性服务业增加值出口之间相互促进作用显著;非生产性服务业增加值出口对货物增加值出口、制造业增加值出口、非制造业增加值出口;货物增加值出口对非生产性服务业增加值进口;生产性服务业增加值进口对非制造业增加值出口促进作用显著。短期来看,货物增加值出口、制造业增加值出口、非制造业增加值出口对非生产性服务业增加值出口促进作用显著。

The relevance of development between manufacturing and service industries is largely reflected in the trade in goods and services. From the perspective of trade in value-added, this article uses the world input-output data （WIOD） to establish a VAR model and explores the inter-relatedness of China＇s export of goods and services trade. Results show that： The mutual promotion is obvious between value-added exports of goods and value-added imports of services, between value-added exports of goods and value-added imports of productive services, between value-added exports of manufacturing and value-added imports of productive services. In the long term, the promotion is obvious between value -added exports of non-manufacturing and value-added exports of services ; between value-added exports of non-manu- facturing and value-added exports of productive services ; from value-addod exports of non-productive services to value- added exports of goods, to value-added exports of manufacturing, to value-added exports of non-manufacturing; from value-added exports of goods to value-added imports of non-productive services; from value-added imports of productive services to value-added exports of non-manufacturing. In the short term, value-added exports of goods, value-added exports of manufacturing and value-added exports of non-manufacturing have a significant promoting effect on valueadded exports of non-productive services.