有色金属价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响——基于金属资源安全视角的分析

The Impact of Nonferrous Metal Price Fluctuation on China's Macroeconomy:An Analysis from the Perspective of Metal Resource Security

基于金属资源安全的视角构建包含有色金属价格波动的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,并利用2001-2013年的季度数据对模型的参数进行估计,分析国际市场有色金属价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明:有色金属价格上升1%,投资、货币供应量、劳动需求、工资水平等经济变量的波动在2%以上,且价格上涨对我国GDP、投资、消费等主要经济指标具有不利影响,但我国经济增长的惯性在短期内可以削弱有色金属价格波动所引致的负面作用;我国的货币政策不能有效解决有色金属价格上涨带来的冲击效应,也无法规避有色金属价格波动导致的输入性风险。上述结论表明金属价格波动与我国经济增速放缓具有紧密的相关性,必须将有色金属资源安全问题上升到国家战略层面来思考。

This paper builds a new Keynesian DSGE model containing nonferrous metal price fluctuations from the per- spective of metal resource security, and uses the quarterly data from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the parameters of the model to analyze the impact of nonferrous metal price fluctuations in the international market on China＇s macroeconomy. The empirical results show that the price of nonferrous metals increases by 1%, the fluctuation of economic variables such as investment, money supply, labor demand and wage level is above 2%, and the price increases has an adverse effect on China＇s major economic indicators such as GDP, investment and consumption, but the inertia of economic growth in our country can weaken the negative effect caused by the price volatility of nonferrous metals in the short term ; our monetary policy cannot effectively solve the impact of the increase of nonferrous metals price, nor can we avoid the input risk caused by the price fluctuations of nonferrous metals. The conclusions above show that metal price fluctuation is closely related to the slowdown of China＇s economic growth, so we must consider the safety of nonferrous metal resources from national strategic level.