深圳湾海岸带景观格局变化特征和趋势预测

The Landscape Pattern Characteristics and Forecast of the Coastal Zone in Shenzhen Bay

文章以深圳湾海岸带为研究对象,在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,应用2001年和2009年遥感影像解译信息,建立空间信息库并叠加分析,获取景观类型动态转移数据矩阵,得出2001-2009年深圳湾海岸带景观空间分布规律及其变化特征,即红树林、建设用地和河流的面积有所扩张,湖泊、滩涂沙洲、林地、浅海水域和绿地的面积有所减少。同时,应用马尔科夫模型对海岸带景观格局的变化趋势进行预测,得出浅海水域、滩涂沙洲、湖泊、林地和绿地的比重将继续下降,建设用地和红树林的比重将持续上升,河流的比重基本不变的结论。由此提出深圳湾应加强对填海造地工程的规划,保护海洋生态环境,实现科学用海和生态用海。

The Shenzhen Bay coastal zone was regarded as the research object,supported by remote sensing and GIS technology,images of 2001＇s and 2009＇s were interpreted.The dynamic transfer data matrix of landscape types were obtained through the constructed space information base and overlaid the two kinds of vector maps.The spatial distribution and characteristics of landscape in Shenzhen Bay coastal zone were also obtained from 2001 to 2009.The results showed that the area of mangroves,construction lands and rivers expanded,the area of lakes,beaches,forests,shallow waters and green field decreased.At the same time,the developing tendency of landscape patterns were analyzed and forecasted with Markov Chain Model.The result also showed,the proportion of shallow waters,beaches,lakes,forests,green field would continue to fall,the proportion of construction land,mangroves would continue to rise,and the proportion of the rivers would stay unchanged essentially.Therefore,it is suggested that Shenzhen Bay shouldstrengthen the planning of land reclamation,protect the marine ecological environment,and make use of the sea in a scientific and ecological way.