祖孙双单亲鉴定的系统效能分析

Analysis of system effectiveness in grandparental double single-parentage cases

目的推导祖孙双单亲排除率(PEGDS)公式,并以随机模拟法进行验证。方法本研究首先建立PEGDS的定义,并在此基础上自行推导PEGDS的数学公式,依据19个基因座上的数据计算PEGDS的公式值。其次以随机模拟法设计实验,计算19个基因座上计算PEGDS的模拟值。最后,以模拟值对比公式值的方式,对公式进行实验验证。结果推导出PEGDS公式,经模拟实验验证与之符合。AGCU EX20系统的祖孙双单亲累积排除率(CPEGDS)为1-3.10310×10-9。祖孙双单亲鉴定的系统效能近似等于三联体鉴定,远高于二联体鉴定。结论本文公式可应用于祖孙双单亲鉴定的系统效能计算。

Objective To derive and empirical validate probability of exclusion in grand-parental double singleparentage cases（PEGDS）.Methods Firstly,an exact definition of PEGDS was established,and PEGDS formula was derived based on the definition.Then the values of formula were calculated in 19 STR loci.Secondly,the simulation values of PEGDS were counted through multi-group simulation experiments in 19 STR loci.Finally PEGDS formula was empirically validated by correlation method between the values of formula and simulation.Results PEGDS formula was all in accord with the simulation experiments.Cumulative probability of exclusion in grand-parental double single-parentage cases（CPEGDS） in AGCU EX20 system was 1-3.10310×10-9.The system effectiveness in grand-parental double singleparentage cases was a little more than trio cases,and was far more than duo cases.Conclusion PEGDS formula in this paper could be applied to grand-parental double single-parentage cases.