未来传媒发展趋势:一种媒介史的视角

Prospect of Media Developmental Trends in the Future: A Media History Approach

媒介的发展进步不断超越人类的想象力,呈现出持续的爆发态势。未来的媒介如何发展,智能社会如何建立与运行,知识形态的转化与媒介发展的异化,社会结构的变革与传播权利的配置,量子通讯技术的开发运用,等等,都在不同程度地挑战人类的幻想力。为此,剖析媒介发展的历史脉络,揭示人类传媒发展的规律和趋势,梳理人类文明与媒介文明的关系,展望未来媒介的发展,无疑将有助于把控人类文明的发展形态与动向。

The development of media continues to surpass the imagination of human beings, showing a sustained outbreak. How the media develops in the future, how the intelligent society is built and run, the transformation of knowledge form and the alienation of media development, the transformation of the social structure and distribution of the communication rights, quantum communication technology development and application, and so on, all of these in varying degrees challenge the imagination of human beings. Therefore, to analyze the history of the media development, reveal the law and trends of the media development of human beings, sort out the relationship between the human civilization and the media civilization, and look into the future of media development trends will undoubtedly contribute to controlling the development form and trend of human civilization.