基于熵权-灰色关联法的房地产项目风险评估分析

Analysis on Risk Assessment of Real Estate Project Based on Entropy-Grey Correlation Method

以重庆市两江新区近几年89个房地产项目数据为研究对象,运用熵权-灰色关联法构建房地产项目风险评价模型。该模型不仅具有良好的适应性,同时具有较高的准确性。通过分析发现:项目17、项目86、项目49、项目75、项目53存在较高的风险,与实际情况基本相符;滞销情况、期房网签占比和周边规划配套3项风险指标对房地产风险有极显著的影响。

Based on the data of 89 real estate projects in Liangjiang New District of Chongqing in recent years,the entropy-grey correlation method is used to construct the risk assessment model for real estate project. The model is not only good adaptive,but also highly accurate. The result shows that the five real estate projects of Project 17,Project 86,Project 49,Project 75 and Project 53 are at high risk,which is basically in accordance with the actual situation. There are three risk indicators：unsalable situation, the proportion of forward delivery housing net signed and the condition of surrounding traffic,which has a very significant impact on the real estate risk. It provides the scientific gist and reference for real estate enterprise to check the risk and the relevant government departments＇ decision-making.