近16年上海市空气质量变化趋势及成因分析

Variation Trend and Causes of Air Quality of Shanghai in Recent 16 Years

采用Daniel趋势检验法分析2001~2016年上海市环境空气监测数据,SO_2秩相关系数r_s(SO_2)=-0.745,r_s(NO_2)=-0.924和r_s(PM_(10))=-0.947在置信度为95%和99%时均为显著下降,环境空气质量逐渐改善。SO_2质量浓度从43μg/m^3下降至15μg/m^3,下降幅度达65.1%;NO_2质量浓度从63μg/m^3下降至43μg/m^3,下降幅度达31.7%;PM_(10)质量浓度从100μg/m^3下降至59μg/m^3,下降幅度达41.0%。2013年开始增加PM_(2.5),O_3和CO_3项指标,2013~2016年PM_(2.5)质量浓度从62μg/m^3下降至45μg/m^3,下降幅度达27.4%,O_3未改善,质量浓度基本持平为160μg/m^3;CO质量浓度从0.85 mg/m^3下降至0.79 mg/m^3,下降幅度为7.1%。PM_(2.5)和O_3成为影响空气质量的主要污染物。上海市环境空气污染特征呈现冬季和春季以PM_(2.5)污染为主,夏季以O_3污染为主,秋季PM_(2.5)和O_3污染共存的典型复合型大气污染特征。从成因方面看:人口和能源持续增加为环境空气带来了巨大的压力,通过总量减排、优化能源结构,清洁能源替代和提高机动车尾气排放标准等措施对改善环境空气质量起到了关键作用。

Daniel trend test method was used to analyze the monitoring data of Shanghai city in 2001 - 2016, r,（SO2）= - 0.745, r,（NO2）= - 0.924, rs（PM10）= - 0.947, which were significantly decreasedin the confidence level of 95% and 99%, the air quality of the environment gradually improved. SO2 decreased from 43 μg/m^33 to 15μg/m^3, a decrease of 65.1%; NO2 decreased from 63 μg/m^3 to 43μg/m^3, a decrease of 31.7%; PM10 decreased from 100 μg/m^3 to 59 μg/m^3, a decrease of 41%. PM2.5 ,03 and CO three indexes were increased from 2013, PM2.5 decreased from 62 μg/m^3 to 45 μg/m^3, a decrease of 27.4%, ozone does not improve, the concentration was essentially flat for 160 μg/m^3, CO decreased from 0.85mg/m3 to 0.79 mg/m^3, a decline of 7.1%. PM2.5 and O3 have become the main pollutants affecting air quality. The air quality in Shanghai is mainly characterized by PM2.5 pollution in winter and spring, 03 pollution in summer, and coexistence of PM2.5 and O3 pollution in autumn period. From the aspect of causes： population and increasing energy for air environment has brought great pressure, the total emission reduction, optimizing energy structure, clean energy and improve vehicle emission standards and other measures a key role to improve the air quality of the environment play.