城市空气质量与入境旅游关系研究

Study on Relationship Between Urban Air Quality and Inbound Tourism

以空气质量指标和入境旅游人数的长期趋势和周期波动规律为研究对象,通过格兰杰因果关系检验和向量自回归(VAR)模型研究空气质量对入境旅游的影响.结果表明:空气质量对入境旅游的影响主要表现为周期波动关系,多数城市的空气质量指标季节变化是其入境旅游季节变化的格兰杰原因,舟山和三亚等市的空气质量不影响其入境旅游.在长期趋势上,只有少数城市的一氧化碳浓度(质量浓度)是入境旅游的格兰杰原因.

Taking the long-term trend and periodic fluctuation law between air quality index and inbound tourism as the research objects,the influence of air quality on inbound tourism was studied through the Granger causality test and vector autoregression（VAR）model.Results show that the influence of air quality on inbound tourism is mainly presented as periodic fluctuation,in most cities,the seasonal variation of air quality index is the Granger cause of the seasonal variation of inbound tourism,and the air quality of Zhoushan and Sanya will not affect the inbound tourism.On a long-term trend,pollutant concentration of carbon monoxide is the Granger cause of inbound tourism change only in a small number of cities.