人口结构变化对我国农村居民消费结构的影响——基于LA/AIDS拓展模型的实证分析

The Effect of Population Structure Changing on Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in China

本文通过引入人口结构变量,对传统的LA/AIDS模型进行了拓展,并采用变系数SUR模型和混合回归模型对2000-2014年的省级面板数据进行回归,以考察人口结构变化对我国农村居民消费结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)农村少年抚养比对食品类和其他类消费支出的影响显著为正,而对衣着类、家庭设备类、医疗保健类、交通通讯类和居住类的消费支出有显著的负向影响。(2)农村老年抚养比对医疗保健类和交通通讯类消费支出的影响显著为正,而对食品类、衣着类、家庭设备类、文教娱乐类和居住类的消费支出有负向影响。

By introducing demographic variables, this paper extends the traditional LA/AIDS model and uses the variable coefficient of SUR model and mixed regression model to examine the effect of population structure change on consumption structure of rural residents in China with 2000-2014 provincial panel data. The results indicate that： （1） The effect of rural children dependency ratio on food and other types of consumer spending is significantly positive, while it has a significant negative impact on clothing, household equipment, health care, transportation, communications and housing consumer spending. （2） The rural elderly dependency ratio has significantly positive impact on health care and traffic communication consumption expenditure, while it has a negative effect on food, clothing, household equipment, cultural and educational entertainment and housing consumer spending.