长期性停滞与持续低利率：理论、经验及启示

Secular Stagnation and Persistent Low Interest Rate:Theory,Evidence and Implications

本文从自然利率角度出发,首先讨论了长期性停滞和持续低利率的关系及其决定因素。理论分析表明,自然利率是潜在产出增速的先行指标,决定着未来潜在产出增速的变化。在对技术进步、人口及其他决定自然利率和潜在产出增速因素正反两方面观点全面梳理的基础上,本文指出有关长期性停滞的讨论本质上仍属于短期波动分析,主要讨论影响短期周期的因素是否具有长期的趋势性特征。政策偏误及其导致的结构性扭曲对经济增长和利率水平有着非常重要的影响。只有积极进行政策调整、充分发挥财政政策作用并进行深刻的结构性改革,经济才能够重新恢复强劲复苏并进入稳态增长路径,顺利实现货币政策正常化,这对新常态下中国经济的长远健康发展同样具有重要的启示性意义。

Based on the theory of natural interest rate, we first theoretically analyze the relationship between secular stagnation and persistent low interest rates as well as its determinants. After a comprehen- sive review on technological growth, population and other determinants of natural interest rate, we point out that the analysis of secular stagnation essentially belongs to short-run cyclical analysis, while the relevant debate are focused on whether or not short-run influences will display long-run characteristics. 0nly with ac- tive policy adjustments, the promotion of fiscal policies and the deepening of structural reforms, can the e- conomy regain a strong recovery, fulfill a steady growth and achieve the normalization of monetary policy. Hence, this paper has significant implication for the healthy long-run economic growth in China.