资本外流对我国金融体系冲击的实证研究

A empirical study ofthe impacts of capital outflows on the financial system of China

本文在美国特朗普经济政策刺激和美联储加息的国际经济背景下,以现阶段我国短期资本外流为研究视角,实证研究资本外流对我国经济金融体系的影响。实证结果表明,不同种类资本流出对金融体系冲击力度不同。FOI会降低我国GDP增长率和M2;FOS会造成人民币贬值,但不会对股票市场造成强烈负向冲击;FOO会冲击RSSE和汇率。所以,短期资本外流对我国金融体系冲击有限,政府须谨慎使用资本管制政策;通过大数据制定资本流动风险预警体系;不断加强汇率市场化建设,完善市场价格机制;适当提高短期国际资本进出成本,使其规模合理化。

This paper makes an empirical study of the impacts of capital outflow on China＇s economic and financial system against the international economic background of Trump＇s economic policy stimulus and the Fed＇s interest rate hikefrom the research perspective of China＇s short-term capital outflow at this stage. The empirical results show that different types of capital outflows exert different impacts on the financial system. FOI will reduce China＇s GDP growth rate and M2,and FOS will cause some devaluation of RMB,but it will not cause a strong negative impact on the stock market; FOO will have some impacts on RSSE and exchange rates. Therefore,short-term capital outflow has a limited impact on China＇s financial system. The government should use the capital control policy prudently by making an early warning system of capital flow risk through big data,constantly strengthen the construction of marketization of the exchange rate and perfect the market price mechanism. It should also appropriately raise the costs of short-term international capital import and export,and make the scale more reasonable.