我国经济增长与环境污染双向关系的实证分析——基于全国285个城市

Empirical Analysis on A Two-way Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution of 285 Cities in China

基于PVAR模型,利用我国285个地级城市2003—2014年面板数据,把285个地级城市按平均人均GDP分成低、中、高三个等级,运用脉冲响应和方差分解检验来分析我国低、中、高城市区域经济增长与环境污染双向动态关系。分析结果表明,我国低、中、高三种不同收入水平城市的经济增长与环境污染之间关系存在差异性。低收入城市地区经济增长引起环境污染加剧,而环境污染加剧又反过来促进经济增长。中收入城市地区经济增长会引起部分污染物增加,但是环境恶化又对经济增长有抑制作用。高收入城市地区经济增长不会明显引起环境恶化,环境污染的加剧也不会对经济增长带来负面影响。中收入城市地区经济发展和环境污染之间的矛盾最为突出。

The two- way dynamic relationships between regional economic growth and environmental pollution a- mong low and middle and high per capita GDP cities were examined using the panel data of 2003 to 2014 of 285 cit-ies based on PVAR model by impulse Response and variance decomposition test method. The results showed that the relationships among the cities in three levels of per capita GDP were different. Reginal economic growth in low income cities caused increasing pollutants discharge, vice versa. Some of pollutants increased when reginaJ econo- my grew in the cities at middle level of per capita GDP. However, environmental degradation impeded economic growth. In those cities at high level of per capita GDP, economic growth didnt result in obvious environmental pollution, vice versa. Therefore, the conflicts of the relationship in middle level cities were most serious.