基于分段线性回归模型的科学家个人科研产出规律研究——以杰青基金地球科学项目为例

The Research of Individual Scientific Research Output Based on Piecewise Linear Regression Model——Empirical Study Based on the National Science Funds of Earth Science Project for Distinguished Young Scholar

[目的／意义]科研论文产出时间序列的传统研究均基于科研人员整体的平均论文产出，此种方法研究所得规律能否代表全部科研人员个人的论文产出规律，既是科研人员成长规律研究的重要内容，也是科技政策评价的重要内容。[方法／过程]实证分析以国家杰出青年科学基金地球科学项目为研究对象，通过构建分段线性回归模型对杰青基金资助前后杰青科学家个人论文产出规律进行研究，并与杰青科学家整体论文产出规律进行对比。[结果／结论]研究结果显示，杰青基金资助前后，杰青科学家整体论文产出呈现持续增长的规律，杰青科学家个人论文产出呈现4种规律，其中31．7％的杰青科学家个人论文产出规律与杰青科学家整体论文产出规律不一致，科技政策定量评价时该方法可以将研究精确到每名科学家。

[ Purpose/significance ] The conventional rule of the scientific productivity time series of research output is based on the overall average output of the researchers. Is the rule behalf of all rules of the individual＇ s output？ The question is not only the important content of scientific researchrule study but also the important content of science policy evaluation. [ Method/process ] The study object of the empirical analysis is the national science foundation for distinguished young scholars of the earth science project, and the method is piecewise linear regression model. [ Result/conclusion J The results show that the overall output rules are not consistent with the individual output rules, and about 31.7% of all the individual output rules are not consistent with the overall output rules. The model can be used to the scientific policy evaluation which can accurate the scientific evaluation in scientists individual.