不确定性的测度及其对中国城镇居民消费的影响研究

The Measurement of Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Consumption of Chinese Urban Residents

用反映居民心理指标的BSI和CSI以及GARCH模型来测度居民收入的不确定性,并比较分析这三种方法的计算结果;同时,用GARCH模型计算贷款、房价和股票收益等的不确定性,并将不确定性与消费进行了相关性分析;在此基础上,实证检验了收入、资产价格的不确定性对中国居民消费的影响,得出收入的不确定对当期的消费有显著的促进作用,房价的不确定对消费的影响在10%的置信水平下显著,而股票价格与贷款的不确定对消费的影响不显著。因此,要促进消费还是要以提高收入为主,适度调整房价,适当引导进而改变居民的消费观念。

In this paper with reflect residents' psychological indicators of BSI and CSI and GARCH model to measure the residents income uncertainty,and comparative analysis of the calculation results of these three methods,but also using the GARCH model to calculate the uncertainty of the loans,housing prices and the uncertainty of stock returns.Further we also analyze the correlation between uncertainty and consumption.On this basis,to examine the impact of income and asset price uncertainty on Chinese household consumption,the income uncertainty for the current consumption has a significant impact in promoting,at the 10% confidence level,uncertainty of the house price has significant impact on consumption.While the uncertainty of the stock price and loan was not significant influence on consumption.Therefore,it is necessary to promote consumption or to improve the income based,moderate adjustment of housing prices,and then guide the residents to change the concept of consumption.