民间投资、产业结构与经济增长——基于我国省级动态面板数据的实证分析

Private Investment,Industrial Structure and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis Based on China's Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

基于2011-2015年我国省级面板数据,建立动态面板数据模型考察民间投资、产业结构及二者交叉项对经济增长的影响,运用广义矩估计(GMM)法对模型进行了回归分析。实证研究表明:民间投资对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,产业结构高级化对经济增长有一定的负影响,民间投资与产业结构之间有正向的相互作用,产业结构高级化可以显著地增强民间投资的产出效率,民间投资增加可以缓和产业结构高级化对经济增长的负面效应。政府应加快落实促进民间投资发展的政策措施,稳步推进产业结构优化升级,培育经济增长新动力。

The paper,based on China＇s provincial panel data from 2011 to 2015,established a dynamic panel data model for investigating the economic growth effects of private investment,industrial structure and its interaction,estimated the model using generalized method of moments（ GMM）. The empirical studies shows that： private investment has significantly positive effect on economic growth,the upgrading of industrial structure has certain negative effect,it has a positive interaction between private investment and industrial structure,upgrading the industrial structure can significantly enhance the output efficiency of the private investment and increasing the private investment can alleviate the negative economic growth effect of the upgrading of industrial structure. The government should speed up the implementation of policies and measures to promote the development of private investment,steadily promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure to foster new economic growth.