我国卫生总费用影响因素分析

Analysis on influence factors of total health expenditure in China

[目的]分析2010-2015年我国卫生总费用筹资水平、构成变化及其影响因素,探讨我国卫生费用的发展状况及存在问题,并提出合理化建议。[方法]利用描述统计和时间趋势分析的方法,分析我国2010-2015年卫生总费用的筹资总量、筹资结构、变化趋势。并以卫生总费用作为因变量,以通过归纳选取的10个指标作为自变量,基于相关分析和回归分析进行影响因素研究。[结果]截至2015年,我国卫生总费用上涨至40974.64亿元,卫生费用占GDP比重为6.05%,政府、社会、居民个人现金卫生支出分别占30.45%、40.29%和29.27%。卫生筹资结构趋向优化,政府、社会卫生支出比重明显增加,个人现金卫生支出比重不断减小。影响卫生费用的因素有65岁及以上人口比例、政府卫生支出占财政比例、人均GDP、医院入院人数、住院病人人均医疗费等。[结论]中国卫生总费用保持较快增长,筹资结构明显优化,在政府筹资和社会筹资的双重作用下,个人卫生支出相对比重下降明显,但仍需保持政府卫生投入力度,逐渐缩小城乡卫生差距。

Objective To analyze financing level, composition, changes and influencing factors of health expenditure in China from 2010 to 2015, discuss the development and problems of health expenditure in China, and put forward some reasonable suggestions. Methods Descrip- tive statistics and time trend analysis were used to analyze financing total amount, financing structure and changing trend of total health expendi- ture in China from 2010 to 2015. Total health expenditure was used as dependent variable, and the 10 indicators were selected as independent variables. The correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to study influence factors. Results To 2015, China＇s total health expendi- ture rose to 4097. 464 billion yuan, the proportion of health expenditure to GDP was 6.05% , and government, society and residents＇ cash health care expenditures accounted for 30.45% , 40.29% and 29. 27% respectively. The structure of health financing tends to optimization. The proportion of government and society health expenditure had increased obviously, and the proportion of personal cash health care expendi- ture had been decreasing. Influence factors of health expenditure include the proportion of people aged 65 and over, the proportion of govern- ment expenditure on health, per capita GDP, number of hospital admissions and per capita medical expenses of hospitalized patients. Conclu- sions China＇s total health expenditure maintain rapidly growth. Financing structure is obviously optimization. The proportion of personal health expenditure decreases significantly under the function of both government and society financing. But it still keeps government health investment, gradually narrow the gap between urban and rural health.