中国工业绿色发展的评价及动力研究——基于地级以上城市数据门限回归的证据

Research for the Evaluation and Dynamic of China's Industrial Green Development——Based on the Threshold Regression for the Data of Prefecture-Level Cities

绿色发展实质是经济增长和环境保护的"双赢"。基于2003—2014年中国280个地级城市工业产出与二氧化硫排放数据,采用门限回归从收入水平、工业结构和研发投入三个维度,探索我国工业绿色发展的水平和动力源泉。研究发现:(1)我国工业的绿色发展在区域上不平衡,在时间上呈现出动态变化特征。东部沿海等大城市已经进入低排放高产出的绿色发展阶段,而中、西部内陆小城市大多仍处于高排放低产出的红色发展阶段;从时间维度观察,我国工业绿色发展模式的城市数量已从2003年的29个,增加到2014年的133个,红色发展模式的城市数量相应从239个减少到8个。(2)绿色发展的动力在不同发展阶段也呈现出很大的差异。人均收入越高的地区,绿色需求对工业绿色发展的拉动力越大;调结构为绿色发展减负加力,特别是重工业比例高地区,调整工业结构是绿色发展的最大牵引力;万元GDP的科技投入强度在(49.3元,125.5元)区间内,科技投入对驱动绿色发展的效率最大。

The essence of green development is the ＂win-win＂of economic growth and environmental protection.Based on the data of 280 prefecture level cities in China in the past 2003—2014 years,we use the threshold regression to explore the level and power source of China＇s industrial green development from three dimensions which are income level,industrial structure and science input.The results are as follows：（1）The level of green development for China＇s industry are different from region to region.The eastern cities have entered the green development stage with low emissions and high production.Most of the small cities in the Midwest are still at the stage of red development with high emissions and low output.With a prospect from the 2003 to 2014,the number of the cities with green development model had increased from 29 to 133 while the city of red development model had decreased from 239 to 8.（2）The dynamic of green development is also showing great differences in different stages of development.In the region with high average income,the green demand for green development generates a powerful force to drive the area to have a green development;the adjustment of industrial structure lightening the burden of green development especially in the areas with a large proportion of heavy industries is more impetus to green development;when the investment in science and technology is between 49.3 yuan to 125.5 yuan in every 10 000 yuan GDP,the investment of science has the greatest contribution to green development.