地铁盾构隧道长期沉降的灰色关联分析

Gray Correlative Analysis in Long-term Settlement of Metro Shield Tunnel

软土地区地铁盾构隧道在运营期间会产生一定的长期沉降,过大的长期沉降将对地铁的正常运营和安全使用产生不利的影响。为了分析、解决长期沉降带来的地铁列车运营安全问题,准确地预测盾构隧道长期沉降显得尤为重要。本文结合苏州地铁一号线的实测数据,从中选取4个相邻的隧道沉降监测点,并借助Matlab工具建立灰色关联预测模型和灰色预测模型,分别对苏州地铁一号线盾构隧道的长期沉降进行了预测分析。结果表明,灰色关联预测模型的平均拟合精度为0.44,比灰色模型的拟合精度高,且其预测结果更接近于沉降实测值。灰色关联预测模型整体性强,可用于预测盾构隧道的长期沉降,为深入研究苏州及其它地区地铁盾构隧道长期沉降预测方法提供了重要的参考依据。

Metro shield tunnel in soft soil area will have a certain long-term settlement during operation. The excessive long-term settlement will have a negative impact on the normal operation and safe use of the subway. In order to analyze and solve the problem of metro train operation safety caused by long-term settlement, it is very important to predict the long-term settlement of shield tunnel ac-curately. Based on the measured data of Suzhou Metro Line 1, 4 adjacent tunnel settlement monitoring points are selected in this pa-per. With the help of Matlab, grey correlative model and grey model are established respectively to forecast and analyze the long-term settlement of Suzhou Metro Line 1. The results show that the average fitting precision of gray correlative model is 0. 44, which is more precise than gray model. And its predicted results are more close to the measured values of the settlement. Due to its advantages of good integrity, gray correlative model can be used to predict the long-term settlement of shield tunnel. This article aims to provide im-portant reference for further studying the long-term settlement of metro shield tunnel in Suzhou and other regions.