福岛第一核电站事故对核能开发政策的影响(I)

Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Nuclear Development Policies

福岛第一核电站事故对全球核能开发产生了影响。虽然事故发生后,各国对其所有在运核电站的安全性进行了全面的技术评估,并且全球范围内核电站的安全要求普遍得到强化,但各国的政策应对却不尽相同。这些应对包括逐步淘汰核能或加快淘汰步伐,减少对核能的依赖,或者相反,继续追求或扩大核能项目。该研究考察了核能政策以及事故前后计划的变化,并力求把福岛第一核电站事故与影响核能决策的其他因素对核能政策的冲击区分开来,特别是电力市场经济学、融资挑战和来自其他能源(天然气、煤炭和可再生能源)的竞争。还研究了各国定量的长期预测随时间的变化,这些变化揭示了核能在未来能源体系中所扮演角色的变化趋势。

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident has had an impact on the development of nuclear power around the world. While the accident was followed by thorough technical assessments of the safety of all operating nuclear power plants, and a general increase in safety requirements has been observed worldwide, national policy responses have been more varied. These responses have ranged from countries phasing out or accelerating decisions to phase out nuclear energy to countries reducing their reliance on nuclear power or on the contrary continuing to pursue or expand their nuclear power programmes. This study examines changes to policies, and plans and attempts to distinguish the impact of the Fukushima Daiichi accident from other factors that have affected policymaking in relation to nuclear energy, in particular electricity market economics, financing challenges and competition from other sources （gas, coal and renewables）. It also examines changes over time to long-term, quantitative country projections, which reveal interesting trends on the possible role of nuclear energy in future energy systems.