美国二叠纪盆地并购热潮和影响分析

M&A trend in the Permian Basin and its impacts

自2016年起,作为美国页岩油三大主力盆地之一的二叠纪盆地形成了并购热潮,对国际油价的影响力不断增强。在该地区开展并购的主体多为已有本地资产的美国中小型企业,并购主要目的是为了发挥钻井的规模效应,巩固在该地区的既有地位。并购热潮能够形成,主要得益于该地区资源潜力较好、技术进步带动成本快速下降、外输设施完善和大企业强势进入等。预计2019年美国二叠纪盆地原油产量将达到美国原油总产量的1/3,2025年达到450万桶/日。受其影响,国际油价2025年或达到60~70美元/桶的水平。总体来看,二叠纪盆地更适合美国本土公司,尚未进入该地区的外国公司应审慎决策,更多关注当地从业公司将非常规资源开发技术应用于常规资源的做法,深入研究二叠纪盆地原油对国际原油市场的影响。

Since 2016, the Permian Basin, one of the three major basins of shale oil in the United States, has formed a merger boom, which has been exerting increasing influence on international oil prices. Assets takers are mainly the incumbent the median and small enterprises with local assets. Their M＆A purposes are facilitate drilling scale economy and to reinforce the vested bargain power of the owners in the region. The visible hot deals are largely driven by the resources potential of the region, plunging costs brought by the technological breakthroughs, good infrastrucatres and entries of big players in the market. It is expected that the production in the Permian Basin will reach 1/3 of the total production in the United States by 2019, and then 4.5 million barrels per day by 2025, lowering the oil price to range of 60-70 dollars per barrel. Overall, American enterprises are more comfortable in the Permian Basin, new foreign players are advised to think twice before taking action. The paper suggests that oil companies should learn more from successful practices applying development technology in unconventional resource to the conventional resource fields and moreover deeply research the impacts of Permian Basin on the international market prices.