中国经济增长潜力预测:兼顾跨国生产率收敛与中国劳动力特征的供给侧分析

China's Growth Potential to 2050:A Supply-side Forecast Based on Cross-country Productivity Convergence and Its Featured Labor Force

中国增速趋势性下滑迹象已经显现,经济下行压力不断加大。如何看待"6时代"的中国经济?未来中国经济可以保持一个多高的增长水平?这是当前引起高度关注的热议话题。本文回避生产函数具体形式讨论,从供给侧角度预测中国中长期的增长潜力:首先基于可比经济体的跨国收敛规律预测中国的劳动生产率增长率,之后基于中国人口结构转变和就业参与等自身特征估计其劳动力增长率,然后求和得到中国2016—2050年间各年的潜在经济增长率。预测结果显示:中国未来各时期的潜在经济增长率如下:2016—2020、2021—2025、2026—2030、2031—2035、2036—2040、2041—2045与2046—2050年间分别为6.28%、5.57%、4.82%、3.94%、3.40%、3.46%和2.98%左右。之后,本文指出中国制度环境的改善空间很大和具有严重的产能过剩都不一定意味着之前的预测结果高估或低估实际的增长潜力。中国离"前沿"经济体越来越近,"后发赶超"优势不断减小,从而劳动生产率增长率不断下降;中国总人口增长趋缓以及人口老龄化趋势越来越严重,从而劳动力规模不断减小;这些都意味着中国经济增长潜力不断下降将成为未来较长一段时间内的必然趋势。

As downward pressure on the Chinese economy persists, a clear trend toward slower expansion has become evident. What should we expect from a China growing at a relatively pedestrian rate of around 6 % ？ What is its growth projection over short and long horizons？ There is intense interest in such questions. This paper bypasses the discussion on the specification of production functions and instead performs a supply-side forecast of China＇s growth rate in the medium- and long-term. It first looks at productivity convergence behaviors across economies and based on which, forecasts the rate of China＇s labor productivity growth. The next step involves predicting the rate of China＇s labor force growth on the basis of its labor supply characteristics such as demographic structure and labor force participation rate. Finally, the two rates are added up to yield China＇s annual economic growth rates between 2016 and 2050. The results show that for the periods 2016 2020, 2021-2025, 2026-2030, 2031-2035, 2036-2040, 2041-2045, and 2046 2050, the projected growth rates are around 6.28%, 5. 57%, 4. 82%, 3.94%, 3.40%, 3.46% and 2.98%, respectively. The paper then points out that neither tremendous improvements in institutional environment or severe industrial overeapacities could explain the overestimate or underestimate of China＇s growth potential. As the Chinese economy converges to the frontier level, its latecomer advantages gradually diminishes, as manifested in declining labor productivity growth rate. Meanwhile, slowing population growth as well as population aging will inevitably lead to shrinking labor supply, suggesting that for a relatively long period from now on, China＇s growth potential will continue on a downward trajectory.