女性退休行为对配偶劳动供给的影响——基于中国强制退休政策的断点回归设计

Effects of Female's Retirement on Spouse's Labor Supply:A Regression Discontinuity Design of China's Mandatory Retirement Policy

传统微观理论通常独立地关注个人退休决策,而忽视了家庭成员之间劳动供给行为的相互影响;并且由于缺少有效的研究方法,家庭劳动供给联合决策的实证研究面临着解决内生性问题的难点。本文利用中国的强制退休政策提供的模糊断点回归设计,识别了女性早于男性退休对男性配偶劳动供给的因果影响。基于2005年全国人口抽样调查数据的实证分析显示,女性50周岁退休导致男性配偶退休概率提高11.6个百分点,劳动参与率降低15.5个百分点,每周工作时间减少9.1小时,表明我国家庭中夫妻双方存在共同退休行为。将这一研究发现纳入对现有退休政策的评估可以为退休政策的改革提供参考依据。

Most traditional micro theories retirement decision instead of taking family independently focus on individual＇s factors into consideration. Also, empirical study concerned with division of labor supply within household normally faces endogeneity issue because of lacking valid research methods. Taking advantage of China＇s mandatory retirement policy, this paper employs regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of female＇s retirement on spouse＇s labor supply. Based on data from China＇s 1% population survey of year 2005, empirical results show that female＇s retirement at the age of 50 increases spouse＇s probability of retirement by 11. 6%, reduces labor force participation rate by 15. 5% and 9. 1 working hours per week. These findings imply couple＇s joint retirement behavior in China and provide empirical evidence for the evaluation of current retirement policy.