中国鸡蛋价格区域联动关系探析

Regional Linkage Relationship of China's Egg Price

鸡蛋作为一种鲜活优质的蛋白类农产品,在居民日常生活中必不可缺,但由于鸡蛋生产和消费存在一定的地域性,中国不同区域之间的鸡蛋价格差距较大,给鸡蛋市场的稳定性带来了一定影响。为探究中国不同区域之间鸡蛋价格变化的相互影响关系,选用分布滞后模型对鸡蛋不同省份之间的价格进行联动关系分析,进而探析鸡蛋价格区域间的传导规律。研究发现,中国鸡蛋价格区域间联动关系明显,不同区域之间相互影响、互相作用;鸡蛋价格的区域间影响存在非对称性,这种非对称性主要表现在传导方向和影响因子上;且中国的鸡蛋价格主要是由消费市场的价格引领,消费市场鸡蛋价格的变化对主产区价格的影响较大。

Egg is a kind of fresh agricultural products containing high-quality protein, and it is indispensable in our daily life. However, because of the certain regional characteristics of egg production and consumption there exists a big price gap in different regions of China, which has a certain impact on the stability of egg market. In order to explore the interaction of egg prices among different regions, the authors selected the distribution lag model to analyze the linkage relationship of egg prices in different provinces, then discussed the transmission rules of egg prices in different regions. The study found that the interaction of egg prices in different regions was obvious, and the prices of different regions affected each other. There was asymmetry in the inter-regional influence on the prices of egg, which mainly manifested in the aspect of conduction direction and impact factor. The price of egg was mainly led by the price of consumer market, which had a greater impact on the prices of main producing regions.