GM(1,1)模型在春运铁路客流预测中的应用

Passenger flow forecasting of railway transportation in chinese spring festival based on grey GM(1,1) model

客流量预测是铁路运输组织工作的重要基础,是铁路部门制定运输方案和列车开行计划的主要依据。采用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型建立我国春运铁路客流量的预测模型,经验证,建立的模型精度较高,可预测短期客流量。最后,运用该模型对我国未来5年的春运铁路客流量进行预测,结果表明:近几年我国春运铁路客流量呈现出线性增长趋势,年平均增长率为7.7%。

Passenger flow forecasting is an important basis for rail transport,which is the main basis for railway making transport scheme and train plan.The grey GM（1,1）model is applied to build models of passenger flow of railway transportation in Chinese spring festival,which can forecast short-time passenger flow for its high precision.At last the passenger flow of China next 5 years is forecast with the model.The results show that passenger flow of railway transportation in Chinese spring festival assumes linear growth trend,and annual aveage increase rate is 7.7%.