广州市旅游气候舒适度对旅游客流量的影响分析

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF TOURISM CLIMATE COMFORTABLE DEGREE ON TOUTIST FLOW VOLOME IN GUANGZHOU

气候条件是影响旅游目的地发展的重要因素。运用1981~2010年广州市气候资料,利用温湿指数、风寒指数、着衣指数和旅游气候舒适度模型对广州市旅游舒适度进行评价,发现广州市1月、2月、3月、11月、12月为旅游气候舒适月份,4月为较为舒适月份,5月、6月、9月、10月为较不舒适月份,7月、8月为不舒适月份。运用2011~2015年广州市入境游客和国内游客的客流量资料进行客流量分析,并与气候舒适度变化趋势进行比较,发现广州市的气候舒适度与客流量的变化趋势存在一定的偏离现象,在气候舒适的1月、2月、3月客流量与气候舒适度呈现反方向变化态势。运用OLS方法对客流量月指数与气候舒适度指数进行回归模拟发现气候舒适度对客流量变化具有一定的影响作用,气候舒适度每变化一个单位,国际客流量月指数增加或减少0.377%,国内客流量月指数增加或减少0.538%。

Climate is an important factor affecting the development of tourist destinations. First, this paper analy-sis the climate comfort degree of Guangzhou using the climate data in 1981 -2010 and adopting the integrated cli-mate index （THI, WCI~ ICI and CCI） . The results show that January, February, March, November and De-cember are the comfortable months, April is the less comfortable month, June, September and October are theless uncomfortable months, July and August are the uncomfortable months. Second, this paper analysis the varia-tion trend of inbound tourists and domestic tourists comparing with climate comfort degree and find the deviationbetween the climate comfort degree and the tourist volume. In January, February and March, the tourist volumegoes the opposite direction with the climate comfort degree. At last, this paper establishes the correlation ofmonthly visitors index and related climate comfortable degree using OLS method. The results showed that themonthly index of climatic coefficient of inbound tourism is 0. 377% and the monthly index of climatic coefficientof domestic tourism is 0. 538%.