基于空间计量模型的人口因素对房价的影响研究

A Study on the Effect of Population Factor on Housing Price Based on a Spatial Econometric Model

利用代际交叠模型与PSR模型分别探讨了人口结构变化与人口跨际流动对房价的影响;利用基于面板数据的一般计量模型与空间计量模型对分析结果进行了实证检验。结果表明,家庭少儿人口数量与老年人口数量均与房价呈现反向变动关系。进一步研究表明,常住人口、人力资本、人均可支配收入、人口抚养及住宅投资额对各大城市房价均起到了正向作用;经济距离加权的研究结果表明,经济发展程度及城市距离间的联动效应是造成人口流动进而引起房价变动的深层次原因。

Firstly,the effect of population structure and population mobility on demand and housing price is discussed by using the overlapping generation model and PSR model, respectively. Then, this study used the panel data based on the general econometric model and spatial econometric model to conduct the empirical study. The results show that the population of children and elderly people in a family is inversely related to the price of the house. Further empirical studies show that the resident population,human capital,per capita disposable income,population dependency, and residential investment have played a positive role in the real estate demand of major cities. The economic distance weighted model shows that the degree of economic development and the linkage effect of the distance between cities is the major cause for the population mobility and the change of house price.