东北三省的碳排放分析及预测——基于STIRPAT模型

The Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the Three Provinces of Northeast——Based on STIRPAT Model

通过对东北三省1999~2014年的碳排放进行测算分析,利用STIRPAT模型,运用最小二乘法和主成分分析方法,探究东北三省的碳排放影响因素;并设置基准和低碳情景预测2020年、2030年东北三省的碳排放量.结果表明:(1)人口总量、城镇化率、人均地区生产总值、二产增值比对东北三省的碳排放起正向推动作用,其中人口总量对碳排放量的促进作用最大,而能源强度对碳排放起抑制作用;(2)经过情景预测分析:2020年基准情景下,黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省的碳排放强度分别为0.41、0.54、0.48;2030年在基准情景下黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省三省的碳排放强度分别为0.31、0.62、0.41.

In this article,through to the three northeastern provinces of carbon emissions in 1999 ~2014 to measure analysis,using the STIRPAT model,using the least squares and principal component analysis method,carbon emissions influence factors of the three northeastern provinces are explored,and the benchmark scenario and low-carbon scenarios are set to predicte carbon emissions of the three northeastern provinces in 2020 and 2030. Results show that：（1）The growth of carbon emissions is the granger cause of urbanization,and the growth of urbanization is not granger cause of the rise in carbon emissions;（2）After the 2020 scenario,the carbon intensity of Heilongjiang Province,Jilin Province and Liaoning Province are 0. 41,0. 45 and 0. 48 respectively. In 2030,the carbon intensity of Heilongjiang Province,Jilin Province and Liaoning Province in the baseline scenario Respectively 0. 31,0. 62 and 0.41.