全面二孩政策对中国中长期粮食安全形势的影响

The Impact of the Universal Two-child Policy on China's Medium and Long Term Food Security

本文将人口结构对粮食需求的影响纳入到粮食供需分析当中,基于不同人口增长情景以及粮食综合生产能力,分析全面二孩政策对我国中长期粮食安全形势的影响。研究结果表明,虽然短期内中国粮食供需平衡,但全面二孩政策在中长期将显著增加粮食需求,并在一定程度上考验未来粮食供给保障能力。若未来粮食供给能力只能维持在目前规划设计的5.5亿吨粮食综合生产能力,那么全面二孩政策下将出现严重的粮食供需缺口,预计2029—2030年供需缺口最高峰将达到7800~8500万吨,缺口率为12.5%~13.3%。2025—2030年是粮食消费需求和供需缺口的峰值阶段,应该提前做好充分准备,确保平稳度过最具挑战的阶段。

Based on the research about the impact of demographic structure on food demand,this paper go further to analysis the effect of universal two-child policy on China's medium and long term food security. Comparing three different population growth scenarios by food supply capability,the results show that the goal with high food self-sufficiency would not be broke in short term under the universal twochild policy,but it is worried that the self-sufficiency rate was only 86.7%-87.5%,if the food supply capability was keeping on the 550 million ton,because of the accumulated effect of demographic structure change.