贫困指标分解、民主评议与扶贫云系统失灵——兼论贫困户识别的基层民主方式

Decomposition of the Quotas of the Poor,Democratic Meetings and the Malfunction of the Anti-poverty Cloud System: Concurrent Comments the Democratic Approach to Targeting the Poor

本文构建了一个以村庄为基本分析单位的"贫困指标规模分解—指标供需状态—基层民主识别方式—扶贫云系统动态管理"整体性理论分析框架。研究表明:(1)就贫困户指标的规模识别而言,中央与省级政府之间存在博弈,且现行自上而下的贫困户规模分解方式使得村级贫困户指标供需关系处于弱均衡状态;(2)基于状态约束的数理模型分析表明,贫困户识别的基层民主方式在制度执行层面有效但精准性较弱,不可避免地出现相对贫困人口替代绝对贫困人口的低效识别状况;(3)低效识别的现实使得"扶贫云"系统存在信度和效度双重不足,进而导致"行政式"小康的治理风险。就如何有效提升基层民主评议在贫困户识别中的作用提出了相应对策建议。

This paper constructs an analytical framework based on the village level. We firstly argue that the current way of rationing the quota leads to a weak state of equilibrium in terms of the scale of the quota of the poor; then we use a mathematical model to show that the democratic meetings cannot be fully utilized under the D-S state; furthermore we explain why the present institutions and policies will lead to an illusive Xiaokang( fairly well-off) inevitably; finally,we provide some practical suggestions to improve the process of targeting the poor mainly based on taking advantage of democratic meetings.