基于典型事故的天然气长输管道风险分析与防护评价

Risk Analysis and Protection Evaluation for Gas Transmission Pipeline Based on Typical Accidents

在综合分析国内外关于油气管道可接受风险水平研究的基础上,认为天然气长输管道应依据敏感区域风险可接受标准进行风险评估,提出了长输管道敏感区域风险分析的基本思路,即明确喷射火和蒸气云爆炸为天然气长输管道的典型事故,利用相关事故模型,参考英美等国的事故统计数据,计算出管道在敏感区域处的风险值,并与敏感区域风险可接受标准对比,提出并进行防护措施效果评估。通过实例验证了所提出的长输管道敏感区域风险评估方法。

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the acceptable risk level for gas pipeline at home and abroad,it is suggested that the risk evaluations should be conducted on gas transmission pipeline according to the acceptable risk criteria for sensative area and it is put forward the basic thinking of gas transmission pipeline risk analysis for sensative area,that is,it is determined that jet fires and vapor cloud explosions are typical accidents of gas transmission pipeline,it is calculated the risk value of pipeline in the sensative area by using the related accident model and referring to the accidents statistical data of the western countries,also compared it to the accepatbale risk criteria of sensative area and it is proposed the protection measures evaluation effects. It is testfied the evaluation methods of gas transmisison pipeline sensative area risks through cases.