中国地市经济发展不平等的时空关联结构演变

Evolution of Spatial-temporal Correlation Structure of Unequal Economic Development at Prefecture-level in China

文章以人均GDP表征经济增长,采用时空自相关方法探讨1985-2016年间中国大陆330个地级市经济不平等的时空关联格局及演变。结果表明:中国地市经济增长存在较强的正向时空关联性,且关联性逐年增强,关联特征上则保持着与经济发展差异变化的一致性。中国地市经济增长局部时空关联呈现"东高西低"的态势,HH(高高)型地市与主要城市群的空间分布大致重合,从时间演变来看,HH型时空关联地区的辐射范围有不断扩大态势,其他类型变化相对稳定。中国地市经济增长的时空关联具有一定的路径依赖或空间锁定特征,局部时空关联类型保持稳定演化的概率最低为65.6%,最高达89.2%,但中国地市经济增长的时空关联仍有跨越式提高或降低的可能性。

This paper,by characterizing the economic growth with per capita GDP and applying the spatial-temporal correla-tion method,discusses the the spatial-temporal correlation pattern and evolution of economic inequality of 330 prefecture-lev-el cities in China. The results show that: China's economic growth at prefecture-level has a strong positive spatial-temporalcorrelation,and the correlation increases year by year. The correlation characteristics maintain the consistency with the differ-ences of economic development. The local spatial-temporal correlation of economic development at prefecture-level presentsthe trend of"high value regions in the east and low value regions in the west". The spatial pattern of HH(High-High) type re-gions coincides almost with the main metropolitan areas. From the time evolution,the type of HH tends to expand its radiationscope,whereas other types relatively keep stable. There is a certain path-dependence or space-locked effect in the spatial-temporal correlation of economic development at prefecture-level,the lowest probability of being stable evolution in the localspatial-temporal correlation type is 65.6%,and the maximum is up to 89.2%. However,there is possibility to increase or de-crease by leaps and bounds among these types of spatial-temporal correlation.