中国金融发展与经济波动——资源重配视角的分析

China's Financial Development and Economic Fluctuation——A View of Resources Reallocation

文章从资源重配的视角研究我国金融发展作用于经济波动的机制,为此构造了经济波动最小化行业结构,并以实际行业结构与经济波动最小化行业结构的距离作为经济波动的度量。研究发现:金融市场和银行中介的发展都促进了实际行业结构向经济波动最小化行业结构收敛,因而缓解了经济波动;就全国、东部和中部地区而言,金融市场比银行发展更能缓解经济波动,而西部地区则是银行发展缓解经济波动的作用更强;金融市场缓解资本密集型行业的波动强于银行中介,而银行中介则更能缓解劳动密集型行业的波动。进一步研究发现,行业间资本生产率增长率的相关性是金融发展通过引导行业资源重配以向波动最小行业结构收敛而发挥经济波动缓解作用的必要条件。

This paper studies the mechanism of China’s financial development affecting economic fluctuations from the perspective of resources reallocation. The article constructs the most moderate economic fluctuations industry structure and,using the distance between real industry structure and the most moderate economic fluctuations industry structure as the measure of economic fluctuations,empirically tests the financial development’s influence on economic fluctuations. The findings are as follows： The development of both financial markets and banks promotes the convergence of actual industry structure converge to the most moderate economic fluctuations industry structure,thus relieving the economic fluctuation; Nationally or in the eastern and central regions,the development of financial markets can alleviate the economic fluctuation more effectively than that of the banks,while in the western region the effect of banks’ development to alleviate economic fluctuations is more significant;The effect of financial markets in easing capital-intensive industries’ fluctuations is stronger than that of bank intermediaries,whereas bank intermediaries can amore effectively lleviate the fluctuations of the labor-intensive industry. Further study finds that financial development can only play a role in guiding resources reallocation among industries to converge to the most moderate economic fluctuations industry structure so as to ease economic fluctuations with the existence of correlation among growth rate of capital productivity of industries.