基础教育投入不均会扩大城乡消费不平衡吗?——基于多重面板门槛模型分析

Will Basic Education Investment Lead to a Wider Consuming Gap between Urban and Rural Residents: An Analysis Based on the Panel Threshold model

学界普遍认为教育能够推动区域经济发展,但是对于教育投入与消费水平变动的研究尚无定论,尤其是缺乏从基础教育投入差异角度,对城乡居民消费差距的解释及讨论。基于空间异质性和非线性的双重视角,利用门槛回归技术对我国省域城乡面板数据进行考察发现,基础教育投入差异总体上显著促进了城乡居民消费水平差异的扩大,但这种影响具有边际效率递减的非线性动态特征和空间异质门槛效应。进一步对非线性增长效应的约束机制分析表明:(1)只有当城乡收入差距和城乡财富水平差距分别跨越一定门槛时,教育投入均衡化才会有利于缩小城乡消费差距;(2)在控制了收入差异的影响下,全国、东部和中部地区均表现为明显的U型;在控制了财富差异的影响下,全国和东中西部地区呈现出N型、N型、倒U型和线性的特征;(3)教育投入对于缩小城乡消费差距存在最优区间,现阶段我国教育投入已处于最优区间内,但是这在不同的空间维度下也表现出一定的异质性特征。

It is widely considered that education can accelerate the regional economic development,but we still have no clear conclusion on the research on the variation of education investment and consumption level,especially the lack of the explanation and discussion of consuming gap between urban-rural residents from the aspect of different basic education investment. Based on the double vision of spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity,the paper takes the advantages of threshold regression method to investigate the urban-rural panel data within provinces. And it shows that the basic education investment difference generally expands the consumption level gap between urban-rural residents,however,this impact may have the nonlinear dynamic characteristics with progressively decreased marginal efficiency and spatial heterogeneity threshold effect. The further study of restriction mechanism analysis on nonlinear growing effect shows that:(1)Only when both the urban-rural income and wealth level gap go across certain threshold,the balanced education investment will narrow the urban-rural consuming gap;(2)Under the influence of controling consuming gap,the obvious " U" model appears in nationwide,eastern part and midland; and under the control of wealth gap,it appears the characteristic of " N",inverted " U" model and linear in nationwide and eastern and western areas;(3)There is an optimal interval for education investment to narrow the urban-rural consuming gap. At this stage the education investment in our country has been in this optimal interval,but within different spatial dimensions it can show heterogeneity to some extent.