江苏省海洋经济发展与经济增长动态关系研究

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between the Development of Marine Economy and the Overall Economic Growth of Jiangsu Province

国家"十三五"规划中将发展海洋经济和海洋科技提高到前所未有的战略高度。江苏省在全国经济格局中占有重要地位,但海洋经济在全省经济增长中所占比例过小,与沿海经济大省的地位不相称。在分析江苏省海洋经济发展现状和经济发展现状的基础上,通过建立VAR模型实证研究了江苏海洋经济发展与经济增长的动态关系。研究结果显示,经济增长对海洋经济发展有促进作用;海洋渔业与经济增长呈负相关关系;海洋运输业、海盐业和滨海旅游业均与经济增长呈正相关关系,且运输业对经济增长的贡献最大。

The thirteenth five-year plan grants the development of marine economy and marine science and technology an unprecedented strategic height. Jiangsu province plays an important role in the national economic structure,but its marine economy takes up only a small proportion in the economic growth of the entire province. This is not commensurate with its status as a leading coastal province of great economic importance. Based on an analysis of the recent development of marine economy and that of the overall economy of Jiangsu,this paper makes an empirical analysis by establishing a VAR model on the dynamic relationship between the development of marine economy and the overall economic growth in Jiangsu province. The study shows that the provincial economic growth promotes the development of marine economy. Though there is a negative relationship between marine fisheries and economic growth,marine transport,sea salt manufacture and seaside tourism are positively correlated with the latter,to which the marine transport contributes the most.